Rita is coming now - is LA safe?

[knlwtchr 0]

I was watching Larry King today and he was talking about Hurricane Rita coming for the coast now, possibly doing some damage in the Gulf again. Any thoughts?

[WxMurray 0]

1). It is not a hurricane...yet.

 

2). Actually, they are thinking of second landfall somewhere closer to Texas.

 

3). All things considered, it might be better to make landfall in Louisiana near Katrina's path. It can't do much damage because it's already been done, as opposed to hitting the Texas Gulf coast where it would be displacing a whole new set of people and causing more damage.

[STSF Precip 0]

It's a wee to early to tell where Rita will make it's mainland entry. The cone of uncertainty with Rita can only tell us right now that there will be a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico in the next few days. SeeNational Hurricane Center's 3-day Cone Map to see the large "cone of uncertainty" as to where this system might be.

 

Precip

[knlwtchr 0]

3). All things considered, it might be better to make landfall in Louisiana near Katrina's path. It can't do much damage because it's already been done, as opposed to hitting the Texas Gulf coast where it would be displacing a whole new set of people and causing more damage.

This is true. I know its too early, but the weather channel is hoping for the worst...I mean, they keep saying they expect it to hit places they cant even traject yet. ::sigh::

[WxMurray 0]

This is true. I know its too early, but the weather channel is hoping for the worst...I mean, they keep saying they expect it to hit places they cant even traject yet. ::sigh::

Well, TWC has made changes recently that I am not fond of, and so I am not surprised about this.

[FredM 0]

Hey there,

 

There is a site I came across a few years ago that actually shows what the NHC's computer models are projecting. These are the tracks they use to project the storms path.

 

 

As you can see, none are showing New Orleans as a target (though as of this time yesterday they were). Part of the problem, in my view, is the Mayor of the city attempting to get things going too quickly...trying to recover from a situation that he helped to contribute to the mismanagement of.

[Dumbass 0]

This is true. I know its too early, but the weather channel is hoping for the worst...I mean, they keep saying they expect it to hit places they cant even traject yet. ::sigh::

Of course they are. They want people to watch so they can sell advertising.

[Travis Kroells 0]

I would have to dissagree with Sir Murray on the assumption that it would be better to have Rita hit in the New Orleans/Gulf Port area.

 

That place is right now basically hanging on by a thread. New Orleans for all purposes is a giant bio hazard, with all the contamination left by Katrina, some parts of the city still are flooded.

 

If Rita were to be hit, sure there may not many casualties because most of the people are else where, but the devestation will be the end of New Orleans. Any of the buildings that some how managed to survive Katrina would be almost surely destroyed by Rita. I leave an error for judgement for the fact that it is no where near the power of the previous one, but its still got some gusto.

 

What do you think might happen to the Super Dome? All of the high rises and other things. I have no idea what the last estimate was on the cost of Katrina, but just imagine throwing another storm into the equation, eventually someones going to say it'll just be too much.

 

Besides that, it is way to early to make any sort of a prediction as to what may happen.

 

And Props to Mike for calling the ratings qimick.

 

Lest we forget SARS :(

[STSF Precip 0]

The Weather Channel has become more aggressive in terms of forecasting longrange strike possiblities. Something I am not happy about, since Tracking storms some 5 days in advanced is not an exact science to say the least. While the Producers at CNN, FOX and MSNBC might not grasp this...The Weather Channel should. People at the Weather Channel should recall hurricane intensity forecasting has been even more challenging..and I would hope refrain from any 5 day strength prognostications as well.

 

Clearly something is changing at the Weather Channel, and I believe Mr. Van Roy has the best lead on the cause.

 

STSF Precip

[DaryusZaphodDracal 0]

Mayor Nagen of New Orleans is already planning a manditory evacuation of Orleans and Jefferson parishes. If another hurricane hit New Orleans now, it would completely destroy it. The devistation from Katrina was bad enough. Another direct hit from a hurricane would be like throwing salt on an open wound. The leve's are already weak enough that another hit would completely and totally flood the city again, with no hope of ever draining the water. Plus, the buildings are structurally unsound. The Superdome is already going to have to be demolished because of the 160 mph+ winds that tore the roof apart, it's not safe to be in anymore. I grew up in New Orleans, so this saddens me very much. But, I don't think New Orleans has much of a chance.

 

Zaphod,

"Missing my home."

[WxMurray 0]

Hey there,

 

There is a site I came across a few years ago that actually shows what the NHC's computer models are projecting. These are the tracks they use to project the storms path.

 

 

As you can see, none are showing New Orleans as a target (though as of this time yesterday they were). Part of the problem, in my view, is the Mayor of the city attempting to get things going too quickly...trying to recover from a situation that he helped to contribute to the mismanagement of.

Ooo. A spaghetti plot.

 

The Weather Channel has become more aggressive in terms of forecasting longrange strike possiblities. Something I am not happy about, since Tracking storms some 5 days in advanced is not an exact science to say the least. While the Producers at CNN, FOX and MSNBC might not grasp this...The Weather Channel should. People at the Weather Channel should recall hurricane intensity forecasting has been even more challenging..and I would hope refrain from any 5 day strength prognostications as well.

 

Clearly something is changing at the Weather Channel, and I believe Mr. Van Roy has the best lead on the cause.

 

STSF Precip

They had a record of 51 million viewers pre-Katrina. They want viewers, and they will sacrifice quality to get it (by hiring blondes that are as dumb as bricks, for one). I had set my eyes on working at The Weather Channel one day, but I have gone off the idea recently with their changes. I am going to stay in Pennsylvania.

 

Rita is now a hurricane and is forecast to become a major one (category 3 in 72 hours) and is forecast to hit south of Galveston, TX.

 

5-Day forecast cone

Public Advisory #11 (11AM EDT)

Forecast Discussion (including strength forecast)

 

The National Hurricane Center

[STSF NDak 0]

I actually read that the National Hurricane Center (the people who names these things) might run out of names this season....interesting...

[WxMurray 0]

I actually read that the National Hurricane Center (the people who names these things) might run out of names this season....interesting...

They have Stan, Tammy, Vince, and Wilma to go. After that they start using Greek letters. So we might just end up with Hurricane Alpha. My question is: can you retire a Greek letter?

[Murdok Helios 0]

Couldn't you just fire a nuke at Hurrican Rite?

 

 

 

Then again you wouldn't want a radioactive hurrican heading your way.

[Dumbass 0]

They have Stan, Tammy, Vince, and Wilma to go. After that they start using Greek letters. So we might just end up with Hurricane Alpha. My question is: can you retire a Greek letter?

No Ulysses?

 

Hey, woah, Silicon Valley is having a thunderstorm now. That never happens, especially since thunderstorms usually follow a heat wave.

[WxMurray 0]

No Ulysses?

There are no Us because of the lack of names for the six-year cycle and replacements. Even if you come up with ten, I'm pretty sure the WMO would want more in reserve.

[STSF Precip 0]

No Ulysses?

 

Hey, woah, Silicon Valley is having a thunderstorm now.  That never happens, especially since thunderstorms usually follow a heat wave.

 

Yeah wierd weather on the West Coast...I was forced to shutdown my computer to due multiple Lightning strikes around my house Monday Night. (Los Angeles Area)

 

Freaky Weather....though not as scary as these Hurricanes as of late.

 

 

PS> That is a darn good question regarding the freak situation of retiring a Greek Letter storm Name. Incredible we are even thinking this.

 

 

Precip

[Cptn Corizon 0]

 

The Latest on Rita

 

It's not a Cat 4...headed for Coastal Texas

[Seiben 0]

 

The Latest on Rita

 

It's not a Cat 4...headed for Coastal Texas

Hmm.. it is now.

 

http://edition.cnn.com/2005/WEATHER/09/21/rita/index.html

[knlwtchr 0]

Now its a Catagory 5, 165 MPH winds

[Travis Kroells 0]

Well, if it slowly slams into Texas, it may downgrade to a 4 like Katrina. I know it's kinda crappy to say, but situations like this, you can only hope for the lesser of two evils :P

[WxMurray 0]

It is now the third most intense Atlantic basin hurricane on record with a minimum central pressure of 898 millibars. The Labor Day hurricane on 1935 is second at 892 millibars, and Hurricane Gilbert in 1988 is first at 888.

 

A low pressure with a deepening low is not a good thing.

 

For the record, 898 millibars is approximately equivalent to 3000ish feet above sea level.

[George_Pickett 0]

I hope anyone affected by this storm takes the proper measures, this weather is just plain Nuts :P

[WesleyMustDie 0]

::cringes:: We're supposed to get thunderstorms from Rita here...

[STSF Jami 0]

I was watching Larry King today and he was talking about Hurricane Rita coming for the coast now, possibly doing some damage in the Gulf again.  Any thoughts?

Thoughts? Quite a few. Speaking as one who lived on the west bank for a few years, LA is never safe. After Katrina, it certainly will not be the same. Someone mentioned to me the other day that two cities - Newport, RI and Galveston, TX, were major seaports before they were devastated by hurricanes - they never recovered. Of course we are in (supposedly) more technologically advanced times, but we still can't control something like a hurricane (and never will be able to).

 

After reading through the preliminary 39-page Gulf rig/platform status report (hubby is a petroleum engineer working - you guessed it - in the Gulf), the fields are in pretty poor shape and the ports are in worse shape. The industry is still reeling from Ivan . . . .

 

As a very wise being once said, "Difficult to say. Always in motion is the future."